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Q3 - Swing-voter prevalence

Among DReps with at least 5 unambiguous selected-action observations, 229 of 313 changed verdict at least once. The mono-verdict population is 84 DReps: 82 Yes-only and 2 No-only.

PREFIX cardano: <https://lambdasistemi.github.io/cardano-ledger-rdf/vocab/cardano#>

SELECT
  (COUNT(?voterId) AS ?totalDReps)
  (SUM(IF(?nVerdicts = 1, 1, 0)) AS ?monoVerdictDReps)
  (SUM(IF(?nVerdicts > 1, 1, 0)) AS ?swingDReps)
WHERE {
  {
    SELECT ?voterId (COUNT(DISTINCT ?verdict) AS ?nVerdicts)
    WHERE {
      {
        SELECT ?actionKey ?voterId (SAMPLE(?rawVerdict) AS ?verdict)
        WHERE {
          VALUES (?selectedTx ?selectedIndex) {
            ("8f54d021c6e6fcdd5a4908f10a7b092fa31cd94db2e809f2e06d7ffa4d78773d" 0)
            ("47a0e7a4f9383b1afc2192b23b41824d65ac978d7741aca61fc1fa16833d1111" 0)
            ("73e171a4c0730b4b59ecae271ab89f12a9d56360b02920e1f95107dbdc1d6762" 0)
            ("73e171a4c0730b4b59ecae271ab89f12a9d56360b02920e1f95107dbdc1d6762" 1)
            ("73e171a4c0730b4b59ecae271ab89f12a9d56360b02920e1f95107dbdc1d6762" 2)
            ("73e171a4c0730b4b59ecae271ab89f12a9d56360b02920e1f95107dbdc1d6762" 3)
            ("73e171a4c0730b4b59ecae271ab89f12a9d56360b02920e1f95107dbdc1d6762" 4)
            ("73e171a4c0730b4b59ecae271ab89f12a9d56360b02920e1f95107dbdc1d6762" 5)
            ("73e171a4c0730b4b59ecae271ab89f12a9d56360b02920e1f95107dbdc1d6762" 6)
            ("73e171a4c0730b4b59ecae271ab89f12a9d56360b02920e1f95107dbdc1d6762" 8)
            ("90cf51975f9c19c291bac3e57364a89507e64daa0a2d35e356f87e6684821556" 0)
            ("8ad3d454f3496a35cb0d07b0fd32f687f66338b7d60e787fc0a22939e5d8833e" 19)
            ("d16dffbae9d86a73cb343506e6712d79c278096dc25e8ba6900eb24522726bba" 0)
            ("e5643c33f608642e329228a968770e5b19ef5f48ff1f698712e2ce864a49e3f0" 0)
            ("207b226e110e13bb18b119fcd313520e0fcd060b2bc9fb9a5e5bc6e94ab10f3b" 0)
            ("8ad3d454f3496a35cb0d07b0fd32f687f66338b7d60e787fc0a22939e5d8833e" 30)
            ("8ad3d454f3496a35cb0d07b0fd32f687f66338b7d60e787fc0a22939e5d8833e" 29)
            ("c21b00f90f18fce4003edf42b0b0d455126e01c946e80cc5341a9f9750caf795" 0)
            ("8845bfc37bb2f69e8f200fe28148b3dea3c4399b0c49ee0ed2bb4e349cab9eb7" 0)
            ("f8393f1ff814d3d52336a97712361fed933d9ef9e8d0909e1d31536a549fd22f" 0)
          }
          ?vote a cardano:Vote ;
                cardano:hasVotingAction ?action ;
                cardano:hasVoter ?voter ;
                cardano:hasVerdict ?rawVerdict .
          ?action cardano:hasTxId/cardano:bytesHex ?selectedTx ;
                  cardano:hasIndex ?selectedIndex .
          ?voter a cardano:VoterDRep ; cardano:hasIdentifier ?voterId .
          BIND(CONCAT(?selectedTx, "#", STR(?selectedIndex)) AS ?actionKey)
        }
        GROUP BY ?actionKey ?voterId
        HAVING (COUNT(?vote) = 1)
      }
    }
    GROUP BY ?voterId
    HAVING (COUNT(?actionKey) >= 5)
  }
}

Observed result:

totalDReps = 313
monoVerdictDReps = 84
swingDReps = 229

Mono-verdict detail [sidecar analysis, not the displayed query]:

Observed detail: 82 Yes-only and 2 No-only. This split is a sidecar post-process — it requires an additional GROUP BY on the sampled verdict for the mono-verdict cohort, computed outside the displayed SPARQL.

Epoch-local swing rates [sidecar analysis, not the displayed query], using selected actions submitted in the same proposal epoch and requiring at least two observations in that epoch:

Proposal epoch Eligible DReps Swing DReps Swing rate
576 213 90 42.3%
603 212 10 4.7%
612 196 12 6.1%
632 261 126 48.3%

The epoch-local table is a sidecar post-process: the displayed SPARQL emits only the three global scalars above, and the per-epoch breakdown is computed from the same unambiguous-observation set joined to proposal epochs outside this query.

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